July 16, 2007
Should we stay or should we go now?
Commenter Bill H. was on a tear this weekend, offering his take on the leadership of Pres. Bush, as well as the reasons for going to Iraq, not to mention how the military campaign is being fought, and the bleak prospects for the civilized to triumph over the barbarians in the region.
It's impassioned stuff, and while I don't agree with all of it, I appreciate his insights.
Austin Bay has considered the impact of an American surrender retreat and come up with what he considers seven likely alternative future histories for Iraq -- and the Middle East -- after we make a hasty exit.
1) THREE NEW COUNTRIES
(2) REGIONAL SHIA-SUNNI WAR
(3) TURKEY EXPANDS
(4) SHIA DICTATORSHIP
(5) CHAOS: The region becomes a cauldron. Iraq shatters into ethnic enclaves, a few “new Mesopotamian city states” managing to control oil fields. Iran and Turkey exert “regional influence” over eastern Iraq and northern Iraq, respectively, but concerned about confrontation between themselves or provoking sanctions from Europe and the US, neither send their military forces in large numbers beyond current borders . Terror attacks and intermittent fighting afflict neighborhoods throughout Iraq. Local warlords rule by fear and make money either smuggling oil, drugs, or arms. This tribal hell is a perfect disaster—the kind of disaster that allows Al Qaeda to build training facilities and base camps for operations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
(6) “GANG UP”
(7) SURPRISE—THE IRAQI CENTER HOLD
There's more here; read the whole thing.
Posted by Mike Lief at July 16, 2007 07:07 AM
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