December 31, 2007
Mark Steyn on Iowa and beyond
I missed this interview from Hugh Hewitt's show, but as with everything else Mark Steyn says, the analysis seems spot on.
Mark Steyn: Tom Tancredo’s task is accomplished. He was never going to be a presidential runner, but he got his issue in the game, which I think is a critical issue for the base. The base doesn’t want a McCainite policy on immigration. It doesn’t want this, you know, whatever Huckabee claims his position is as of the moment. It wants a reliable border enforcement, and it wants respect. It wants the same respect that the American people have for American citizenship laws, and doesn’t want citizenship corrupted. Tom Tancredo, it’s, you know, it’s cruel, it’s a cruel world, but he was never going to be a presidential contender, but he did his job, and he got his issue there, and if he’s concluded that Mitt Romney is the best person to advance that issue for him, I think that is quite a big deal.
Hugh Hewitt: Now talk to me about what’s going on in New Hampshire, because of course, McCain’s got a little boomlet there ....
Mark Steyn: Well ... I think there is a McCain boomlet in New Hampshire. And even more interestingly, there’s an odd kind of stirrings in Iowa. And I read it this way. I think, you know, clearly, New Hampshire wants to identity the anyone-but-Huckabee candidate. And that, to date, has been Governor Romney. But I think there is also a market for an anyone but Huckabee or Romney candidate. And Rudy Giuliani assumed all along that he would be that man, he would be the alternative to Romney. And I think, you know, McCain, in a sense, is benefiting from the fact that Giuliani is in freefall.
Hugh Hewitt: Now Mark Steyn, we’ve talked many times, John McCain is a great American, a lousy Senator and a terrible Republican. He was anti-tax cuts, he was pro-Gang of 14, he was McCain-Kennedy on immigration. He cannot possibly carry the base. So who is supporting him in New Hampshire?
Mark Steyn: Well, the Union Leader, the state newspaper in New Hampshire, thinks that…independents can vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary. And to date, a lot of it has shown that most, the independents were breaking and planning on voting in the Democratic primary, where supposedly, they’d be voting for Obama, I guess, and, or even John Edwards as some suggestion he has some independent support. And just in the last few weeks, some of them have been moving back and saying they’re thinking of voting in the Republican primary. And I would assume they have got to be McCain voters. You know, last time around in 2000, he lost very badly in primaries that were confined purely to Republican voters. It was independents who generally provided his margin of victory.
Hugh Hewitt: Now if Romney finishes second in Iowa and New Hampshire, does he have a campaign to continue?
Mark Steyn: I think he does. I think the interesting thing about this campaign season is that there are so many variables, a lot’s going to depend on how things shake out in Iowa and New Hampshire. But if you’re, say, second in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, I think that gives you the ability, and he’s certainly got the money, to stick it out. The problem for someone like Giuliani, who basically had this kind of 1-800 candidacy, he was going to be, he was going to fight a national primary, and ignored ground campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire, I think all the momentum has developed, all the talk, all the buzz has developed about everybody else, and he isn’t even part of that conversation anymore.
I like the way Hewitt describes McCain: "A great American, a lousy Senator and a terrible Republican." Sums up the many reasons why I think the guy doesn't have a shot at winning the nomination. If he changed parties, maybe.
Steyn notes that the Republicans seem to be fighting over ideas, basic differences in ideology and political philosophy, in a way not seen amongst the Donks.
Mark Steyn: I mean, who really knows Edwards-Obama-Hillary? What difference does it make? It’s just a question of putting the prettiest face on the same old same old. I mean, what I have a problem with, in a sense, I can understand someone like Ron Paul, who has a radical but philosophically grounded view of things. What bothers me about Huckabee, and to a certain extent, McCain, is that there seems to be no breaks on any of their inclinations, other than how they happen, personally, to feel about it. So to me, they seem philosophically unmoored. But I thought the Will piece, you know, in presupposing that somehow being pro-life is an optional extra on the Republican side, whereas, you know, a commitment to free trade isn’t, I’m not, that smelled like a bogus argument to me.
HH: I thought it was a cheap shot at Mike Huckabee, because it is part of the Reagan coalition to be Evangelical and be pro-life. 20 seconds, Mark Steyn, I want to get a prediction. Who’s going to win in Iowa and New Hampshire?
MS: I think unless something terrible happens, Huck is pretty much a shoe-in there. I think Romney can still hold on in New Hampshire. The question is, actually, I think whether there’s going to be a little Huckabee boomlet that will put him into third place. But McCain could still pull it off in New Hampshire.
In the week-and-a-half since that interview aired, Huckabee's begun his slide in the polls. The more the GOP learns about this guy, the less appealing he is -- to the base, as well as the general electorate. His comments in the aftermath of the Bhutto assassination, wherein he said the U.S. owed Pakistan an apology, was so awful it had me checking multiple sites to see if I'd heard correctly.
A blame-America-first candidate running for the GOP nomination?
Oy!
I suspect Huckabee's done.
Posted by Mike Lief at December 31, 2007 07:43 AM
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Comments
"I suspect Huckabee's done."
Well, it is good to have hope.
Posted by: The Little Coach at December 31, 2007 03:23 PM
Hope springs eternal.
Besides, one president from Hope is one too many.
Posted by: Mike Lief at December 31, 2007 03:25 PM