January 02, 2008
Is Hillary about to get clobbered?
Let me start by saying that I'd love for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party's nomination, almost as much as the Moonbat Libs would love to see the GOP pick Huckabee, for probably the same reason: both candidates are deeply unattractive to huge swaths of the electorate.
With that out of the way, on to business.
As Iowans file into rooms across the state to begin caucusing, David Freddoso explains why Hillary Clinton may suffer a tremendous setback this week, thanks to the quirk in the process that allows supporters of losing candidates to vote again.
Hillary Clinton leads in most late polls of Iowa, if only narrowly. Yet she will not place first. She may not even place second.
The reason lies buried in the Democratic caucus process, and it stems from the fact that Hillary Clinton is hardly anyone’s second choice for the Democratic nomination.
[...]
The most relevant feature of the Democratic caucus, as opposed to the Republican one, is that it allows supporters of losing candidates to make a second choice. This is where Hillary is on course to fall short.
To get some idea of how this works, let us examine the Johnson County Auditor’s website, which offers an easy example (it was written for 2004, but the rules remain essentially the same).
Imagine that 100 Democrats show up to caucus in an imaginary Iowa precinct. They watch speeches given by candidates’ local surrogates and, each then tries to persuade his undecided neighbors. Caucus-goers choose a corner of the room in which to stand — the Clintonites will stand together in one place, as will the Obama-backers, the Dodd-lovers and all the rest. Once each has chosen his place, a timeout is called. A tally is made of each candidate’s supporters. In the example, the count comes out thus:
John F. Kennedy: 44 supporters
Franklin D. Roosevelt: 30 supporters
Harry Truman: 14 supporters
Woodrow Wilson: 12 supportersIt doesn’t end here, though. In the Democratic caucus, candidates must receive 15 percent of the precinct’s vote in order to receive any delegates. And so once this initial tally is taken, everyone is given a chance to form up again. Kennedy and Roosevelt backers have no incentive to change sides — their candidates are all set to get delegates in this precinct. But backers of Truman and Wilson get to take a second crack at it (or else they can just leave). They could band together to give Truman a few delegates, or they could join one of the frontrunners to boost his numbers. Once the realignment takes place, precinct delegates are awarded proportionally (each precinct is entitled to a different number of them). The party then reports the number of delegates — not the number of votes — to the media.
What does this mean for Hillary? According to the Insider Advantage poll, she is the second choice of just 21 percent of likely caucus-goers who are backing Sen. Joe Biden (Del.), Gov. Bill Richardson (N.M.), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), and all other also-rans, who in most precincts will fail to reach the 15 percent threshold. John Edwards, by contrast, is the second choice of 62 percent (Obama is at 17 percent). This is significant because a full 20 percent of those surveyed said they were either undecided or backing a minor candidate in the first round.
In a close race between Clinton and Edwards, Edwards bests her after the realignment is done, thanks to those likely caucus goers who consider him their second choice. If the latest Des Moines Register poll is to be trusted, and Hillary is locked in a second-place tie with Edwards, then her worst-case scenario could be realized. This may explain why Clinton campaign officials are forbidden to say she will win Iowa.
Fascinating.
Posted by Mike Lief at January 2, 2008 07:56 AM
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