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July 13, 2006
It's Wartime, folks!
As the Middle East seems to be entering the first phase of the latest Arab-Israeli War, I found an interesting perspective on the conflict, courtesy of an Egyptian blogger, Sandmonkey. This is a lengthy excerpt, but it's also exceptionally interesting.
Good morning everyone. It's time for us to resume our coverage of the little egomanical exercise in insanity called the Hezbollah kidnappings of Israeli soldiers , and the Israeli "We don't know how the fuck to respond but let's bomb everything" retaliation Policy.
The region is ruled by insanity, madness beckons, and War is on everyone's mind. No one is surprised though. After all, in the middle east, this is business as usual.
The responses of the people in Egypt are … interesting. My dad's view is that comic sadness "Those poor lebanese. Every single time they rebuild Beirut, it gets destroyed, so they rebuild it again, and it gets destroyed again. It's like a Seesaw!", while my co-worker H. response is of "We should go to War, and attack Israel, if we have any sembelnce of diginity or self-respect. War War war, rah rah rah, blah blah blah", all said while he lounges confortably in his leather chair, in an airconditioned Office, while sipping on the morning Coffee that the Office-boys have made them. I love Chair-warriors, you know, the people who egg on the war from their desks. Of course they are cheering Hezbollah, what do they have to lose?
The interesting and new thing is the view that Israel can not do shit, one that is held by the political, combat and strategic warfare analysts and experts that occupy our accounting department. It goes something like this: Israel can't do shit, because for the first time Hezbollah's rockets are capable of attacking them inside their territories. That they are not attacking Hezbollah's outposts because they can't afford to, which is why they blow up the airports and the powergrids, because they can't really attack Hezbollah. Jamal, a lebanese blogger, shares their same sentiment that this is all but a storm in a teacup:
Hezbollah did their thing in the morning and and then sat back and watched . Israel hit roads and nothing else.
Why?
Because any further escalation would give Hezbollah the right (per the April 1996 Agreement) to hit back.
Power station for power station. Tourist season for Tourist Season.
Israel knows Hezbollah rockets are in place, ready, aimed and can reach deep into Israel. 15,000 of them. And that's even before the "surprise".
Israel had to retaliate. No way they could let an act of aggression by Hezbollah go "unpunished." So they barked, hit roads, and killed civilians. In the end they will sit down and negotiate.
Hezbollah acted unilaterally and they will get some criticism for it in Lebanon, especially for endangering the precious tourist season. However, regionally they got millions of admirers for being the only group in the world to do something about the rape of Gaza. Sure, Nasrallah insists today was all about Lebanon and Lebanese POWs, but who is he kidding. It wasn't and there is no shame in that.
At the end of the day Hezbollah proves they are strong, very strong actually, and Israel is not used to dealing with a strong foe.
Hmmm……….
Now, since we are all strategic warfare experts here, the question begs itself, what should Israel do?
Should they lay down their arms, and be forever humiliated by Hezbollah? Should they move the ground forces into Lebanon, and engage in Guerilla warfare on Hezbollah territory? Or should they just resort to the Kosovo option, and Carpet bomb Southern Lebanon to the stone age? Or should they just attack Syria, because let's face it, they are the ones behind that shit anyway?
Well, laying down the arms and open negotiations is a humiliating but viable option, altough it will encourage future kidnappings to get future concessions, so they will probably say no to that.
The ground forces move? Maybe good to estbalish a buffer zone to stop missile attacks into Israel, but the lives saved from getting killed by a rocket will have an equal life lost on the battlefield with Hezbollah.
The Kosovo option is viable, and offers the lowest casualty rate on the Israeli side, but thousands of Lebanese people will do, who, while they may be Hezbollah supporters, ehh, it just doesn't look good in the international community's eyes. But then again, since when does Israel care what the world says anyway? It's not like they were ever on their side. Right?
This leaves us with the "Let's Bomb Syria" option, and interestingly, that's the one favored by a Lebanese blogger as well:
Some independent people in Lebanon might start thinking that the only solution is to move the conflict to Syria and Iran. The country is on the brink of destruction, especially after the Israeli prime
minister threatened to take the country back 20 years. Hizbullah and the cabinet do not care enough.It is unlikely that the international community will save Lebanon now. Why should they? Even Saad Hariri’s media has gone soft on Hizbullah all of a sudden. So the only logical thing for some might be to actively support forces opposed to the Assad regime and Tehran.
Since the Lebanese army is not interested in defending the Lebanese state, then some free Lebanese might consider funding and arming militant units to work on Syrian and Iranian territories, targeting Syrian and Iranian infrastructure. There is no reason why Lebanon should lose bridges and Damascus and Tehran don’t.
After all, we are all in this together, right?
As for Israel’s leaders, perhaps they should listen to Nasrallah for once. Bombing Lebanon will not deter anyone. Olmert is a wimp with high-tech war toys. A mighty power such as Israel has to go after the real source and stop the cheap targeting of Lebanese infrastructure and civilians. But Israeli leaders are still choosing the easy way out.
Instead of picking enemies their own size in Damascus and Tehran, they pick to destroy the livelihood of innocents and kill and maim civilians, feeding the backward resistance culture that pervades the
region.The scale of the Israeli retaliation today, Lebanese responsibility aside, was cowardly. If Hizbullah showers them with rockets, then they have asked for it. Their army was even humiliated by Hizbullah fighters, so they took it out on bridges and roads, harming the interests of the same people that Hizbullah has hijacked with their help. This will serve to reinforce Israel’s image as a terrorist bully in a region of masochists.
That same call is repeated by him again here:
YOU GOT WHAT YOU WANTED NASRALLAH.
NOW SHOW US WHAT YOU CAN DO.
SHOW US YOUR MIGHT.
USE THOSE ROCKETS.
LEBANON IS BEING DESTROYED AND ALL I CAN THINK OF IS YOUR FACE.
DAMN YOU.
AS FOR THE ISRAELI COWARDS, GO FLEX YOUR MUSCLES IN DAMASCUS AND TEHRAN. COWARDS.
This move would make the best strategic sense for Israel and Lebanon. If they managed to bomb Syria and kill Bashar, a power struggle will emerge in the syrian government and the revolution that all the sects want to engage in against the alawites will take place. The In-fighting would cut-off military support to Hezbollah, but would also free Lebanon from Syrian tutelage, and would weaken Hezbollah to the degree that it can't bully the other Lebanese sects anymore, allowing the Lebanese to finally move forward. As Big Pharoh quoted one of the Lebanese commenters on an FPM site: " This could be a positive for Lebanon. Israel might disarm Hezbollah for them."
The sentiments on the rest of the Lebanese blogsphere, while may not be calling for the bombing of Syria yet, are definitely very angry at Hezbollah. Mustapha calls their actions a "Fatal overreach"
Like I said, an interesting perspective from the other side of the fence.
Fascinating that, while Pres. Bush urges "restraint," some Arabs are calling on Israel to broaden the attack.
Interesting -- and dangerous -- times.
Posted by Mike Lief at July 13, 2006 08:21 AM
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Comments
I've read a lot of sandmonkey's blog in the past, but have kind of lost touch with it lately. It's good to read what the "other side" of the latest dustup is thinking.
Pardon me for my lack of sensitivity towards the gravity of the situation, but the whole lebanese "bomb syria" thing strikes me as about as funny as the gary larson cartoon of the two bears in the rifle scope.
One of them is munching away, and the other sees the hunter, and is pointing to the other bear.
Posted by: bothenook at July 13, 2006 12:33 PM
hey mike... haloscan sez your trackback is disabled.
too bad...i tried.
Posted by: bothenook at July 13, 2006 12:46 PM
Thanks for the heads-up. I think trackbacks are fixed now.
Posted by: Mike Lief at July 13, 2006 01:25 PM
War War War - blah blah blah. Out on a limb you are crazy! Now is the time for PEACE!!!!! PEACE PEACE!!!!! Our country should sit down with everyone in the middle east and figure out a solution to the craziness over there. Killing other people is never a good thing. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. This is just a stupid way of looking at the world.
You can't tell me that Muslim people don't love their children as much as we do. They don't want war. Obviously, there is a huge lack of understanding in the middle east right now. The last five thousand years have shown us that all the fighting and killing over there hasn't solved anything. Out On A Limb you need to turn this website into a love machine and crank out some LOVE. I do like to check in with you now and then to see how the testerone is pumping but I just can't stand to sit back and watch this site or any other crank out endless war talk without saying anything.
Just from thee impact that all the war has on the environment alone we have a duty as fellow citizens of this Earth to stop the violence!
Posted by: Sbarro at July 16, 2006 10:25 AM
"I'm just a love machine..."
Oh, welcome back, Sbarro. I am happy to see the rumors that you had been in a tragic energy-efficient vehicle incident are not true.
First, OOAL has been posting some lovely flower photos lately and that IS turning this website into a virtual love fest. Check that out - why must your glass always be half empty.
Second, what exactly is your plan for loving the world into the peaceful state you desire? A plan, a simple plan. Where is YOUR love machine website that I can read to start altering our war-mongering minds to a more loving state? Why don't you put your money where your mouth is - not sit back and criticize but actually put yourself OUT ON A LIMB, take a little heat through the comments of the rest of the world?? If you are so committed to your values and to changing the world through love, why no website we can read to start the process?
Finally, you still haven't answered the questions I have asked you in the past, including the biggee: "You are pro choice, right?" I asked it a long time ago, but you do not seem willing to respond to something that demonstrates the lunacy of some of your earier (and current) statements.
Welcome back and have a lovely week! We missed you.
Posted by: Thin Ice at July 16, 2006 09:06 PM
I swear I heard some hippie music playing in the background of Sbarro's post.
There really isn't anything to reply to because Sbarro's unhingedpost says it all.
Sbarro, stop watching the Code Pink videos. Concession on our, or Israel's part, will be viewed as weakness and further prompt Hezbollah, and any other terrorist organization, to keep terrorizing. Israel has shown the world what happens when it concededes to terrorist demands. Israel backed out of occupied land a few years ago and in return recieved suicide bombings and rocket attacks.
They gave peace a chance and the terrorists rammed it up Israel's ass -- a trend that has been happening since the mid 40's.
Posted by: Trickish Knave at July 19, 2006 03:24 PM